Archive for June, 2010

The Financial Times (see hyperlink and clips below) reports that the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), the Kingdom’s central bank, has disclosed a more than doubling of its gold reserves to 322.9 tons (an increase of US$7 billion at current prices, over its last disclosed level of 143 tons). While the increase may be solely the result of a change to SAMA’s accounting method, the Kingdom possesses more than twice as much gold as previously thought. In recent trading gold has hit unadjusted (for inflation) all-time highs above $1260/ounce. Should sovereign buying of gold continue (India, for instance, has been a big purchaser), and considering that the breaking news of China’s decision to unpeg its currency and thus have a stronger yuan, analysts see more potential upside to gold.
clipped from www.ft.com

Gold prices hit on Monday a fresh record high of almost $1,265 a troy ounce following the revelation that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is sitting on more than twice as much gold as previously thought, according to new estimates.

The weakness of the dollar following China’s decision to make the yuan more flexible, gave bullion further momentum, analysts said. A stronger yuan makes the cost of gold for Chinese buyer cheaper, potentially increasing demand. China is the world’s second largest gold consumer, after India. It is also the largest producer.

Analysts said the rise in official gold holdings probably represented an accounting shift rather than fresh purchases. One possibility is that a large fraction of the country’s gold was not considered until now part of the official reserves.

But without an official explanation, analysts were keeping options open. At current prices, the extra gold in Saudi Arabia’s official reserves amounts to $7bn.

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The New York Times (see image and clips below) reported Sunday that US geologists have discovered nearly $1 trillion of untapped mineral deposits, including iron, copper, cobalt, gold, and lithium. While this is potentially much needed positive game-changing news for the Afghan economy, the NYT cites the cognizance of American officials fearing a ‘double-edged impact’ of the find, referring, for instance, to (1) the possibility of exacerbated instability as the Taliban may elevate its efforts to try and take control of the country, (2) a possible run-in with resource-hungry China, and (3) a lack of mining and basic overall infrastructure (including human capital in both government and industry) in Afghanistan necessary to exploit the deposits — creating the likelihood that meaningful proceeds from any finds are years, if not a decade or two, out. Nevertheless, should Afghanistan somehow manage to arrive at even a modest level of sustained stability, the wheels of commerce will begin to roll and hopefully bring days of ever more peace and prosperity to an impoverished, war-torn country.
clipped from www.nytimes.com

WASHINGTON — The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials.

An internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and BlackBerrys.

While it could take many years to develop a mining industry, the potential is so great that officials and executives in the industry believe it could attract heavy investment even before mines are profitable, providing the possibility of jobs that could distract from generations of war.

“This will become the backbone of the Afghan economy,” said Jalil Jumriany, an adviser to the Afghan minister of mines.

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In addition to the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council member states, there are other compelling growth stories, places like Tripoli (Libya), that are soaking up investment capital, particularly in infrastructure projects — the focus of a Financial Times special, see clips below.
clipped from www.ft.com

At a time of global gloom when most governments are tightening their belts, Libya is a rare source of light. The north African oil exporter is splurging on massive building projects in an attempt to make up for 40 years of underinvestment that have left it with poor services and its infrastructure in tatters.
Tripoli, the once-shabby, low-rise capital, is being spruced up with new roads and elegant, modern towers along the waterfront, and cranes dot the cityscape – all part of a drive to build new office blocks, housing and hotels.
“In the development cycle, Libya is sort of where Abu Dhabi was 15 years ago, with the same goals and same initiatives to develop tourism and industry,” Mr Thompson says.
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