Archive for the ‘News’ Category

TradeFlow21 — AFGHANISTAN. The recent epochal events taking place in the Middle East and North Africa (collectively referred to as MENA), starting with Tunisia last December, have created a domino effect in the region.  The reverberation of this movement was felt by some of the most secure governments in the two regions, and one by one we have seen masses of repressed people follow the footsteps of the courageous youth of Tunisia.

Some have called this movement the “Arab Spring” or the “Arab Movement,” however, the “Arab Renaissance” is more befitting since for the first time in generations the overwhelming majority is willing to question the powers of authority.  Respective peoples are no longer willing to stand idle and take direction from one ruler or one family of rulers.  For so many years the gap between the have and have-not has grown in the two regions by leaps and bounds, thus making it more difficult, if not impossible, for the average person or family to grow and enjoy the financial security that only a handful have monopolized. Read the rest of this entry »

The Wall Street Journal reports that the governments of Germany, the UK, and the US are about to reach a deal on export subsidies for commercial airplanes. The agreement covers export-credit financing, a scheme in which airlines pay government agencies fees for financing guarantees that reduce the cost of borrowing and improve access to credit.

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1) Actual (Strategic) Value of “Distressed” Real Estate: Dubai World, the government-affiliated parent company under scrutiny, is strapped with an estimated $24B in debt,including $7.3B in deteriorating real estate assets held by their Nakheel subsidiary. On paper, these assets are distressed. In brick-and-mortar reality, they include new-to-market commercial and residential units that help define the Dubai skyline. Vacancy rates are transitory, but quality real estate will return value if strategically positioned as part of a larger initiative or economic plan. A shift, for example, in the commercial focus from financial services and tourism to energy, such as the creation of a solar-powered city, could restart investment and development.

2) Primacy of DP World: Dubai World’s marine and port subsidiary, DP World, maintains deep-water terminals in over 30 countries from the Americas to Asia. It is simply too valuable a commodity (commercially and politically) for the government to abandon to creditors in courts. DP World’s port presence across the globe is central to the UAE’s identity and prestige.

3) Capitalism 2.0: The Dubai crisis was an inevitable and necessary step in the maturation process of an emerging free-market economy. Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s undisciplined approach to development, coupled with investors who naively assumed their bets were covered by state revenues derived from oil, created conditions that plunged the Emirate $80B in debt. Despite the poor timing of Dubai  World’s announcement of a standstill just prior to the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, Dubai and its flagship company should emerge from the crisis with a new sense of purpose and propriety. Abu Dhabi will likely take the lead in helping Dubai restructure its financial institutions and reshape its strategic thinking as part of a wider effort to regain a measure of market integrity and public trust.

4) Human Capital: Dubai’s “oil reserves” are its people. They are educated (77.9% literacy rate), able, and multi-lingual with commands of Arabic, Persian, English, Hindi, and Urdu. The  serious, sophisticated investor recognizes this as a key attribute in any successful venture. Human capital is the critical “X factor” on a balance sheet.

See clips below from The National Newspaper’s coverage of James B. Smith’s (the recently appointed U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia) poignant talk to approximately 100 U.S. company representatives in Riyadh. TradeFlow21 lauds Ambassador Smith for his timely and critical assessment — hopefully a wake up call for businesses.

For information on the latest global economic competitiveness ranking and how the GCC ranks (note Saudi Arabia moved up to #13 this year and is knocking on the door for a top-10 spot), see Doing Business 2010: Saudi Arabia nears goal; UAE climbs ranks.

clipped from www.thenational.ae Diplomat warns US firms are losing edge RIYADH // The new US ambassador to Saudi Arabia yesterday warned American businesses to wake up to the fact that they are losing their edge in an increasingly competitive Saudi market. Ambassador James B Smith, a retired air force general, also told his audience of about 100 US company representatives that it was time for both Saudis and Americans to “rethink some opinions” of each other forged in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Noting that many US companies are “on the sidelines waiting to see what’s going to happen in Saudi Arabia”, he added: “My message back to them is: What’s happening is the train has already left the station. You are losing market share to India, China, Russia and if you don’t move you’re never gonna catch the train.”

Doing Business 2010: Reforming through difficult times, which features the latest ranking of economic competitiveness (published on Thursday by the International Finance Corporation – The World Bank), contains some especially positive news for The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

As for Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom moved up two spots to number 13, surpassing Iceland and Japan, respectively, while inching closer to a coveted top-10 spot. The Kingdom is striving to become a top-10 competitive economy by 2010 (which coincides with next year’s Doing Business). TradeFlow21 managing partners Lewis Nescott and Steven Towns recently met with officials at the Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia and had a very productive discussion — including the unequivocal significance of the Kingdom’s “10 x 10″ goal. See the next edition of Trade and Transactions, TradeFlow21′s monthly e-newsletter, for more details. (Contact us for a free subscription.)

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates continued its impressive climbing of the rankings in recent years, moving up 14 spots to number 33. Among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, only Saudi Arabia and the UAE improved their competitiveness in the ranking. While other GCC members also instituted reforms, the global landscape is quite competitive and therefore, on a relative basis, they lost some ground.

Following is a list of select countries with their 2010 rankings and year-over-year change.

Top-10
1. Singapore
2. New Zealand
3. Hong Kong, China
4. United States
5. United Kingdom
6. Denmark
7. Ireland
8. Canada
9. Australia
10. Norway
* Among the top-10, all were unchanged except a switch in places between the U.K. and Denmark.

GCC
13. Saudi Arabia (+2)
20. Bahrain (-2)
33. United Arab Emirates (+14)
39. Qatar (-2)
61. Kuwait (-9)
65. Oman (-5)

“BRIC”
89. China (-3)
120. Russian Federation (-2)
129. Brazil (-2)
133. India (-1)

In a commentary posted on the TradeFlow21 website in advance of President Obama’s speech, we wrote that necessity:

1)      demands the cessation of hostilities between Israel and its neighbors, including the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state as the only viable means of resolving the Palestinian question

2)      requires a U.S. policy that summarily rejects those in all quarters who use division and discord as a means of maintaining their “competitive advantage” in the region

3)      dictates that economic development, through investment and trade, be embraced as the preferred path to establishing a more stable, secure world for all

In his long-awaited speech on American-Muslim relations today in Cairo, President Obama responded, arguing that

1)      “America will not turn our backs on the legitimate Palestinian aspiration for dignity, opportunity and a state of their own”

2)      “as long as our relationship is defined by our differences, we will empower those who sow hatred rather than peace…conflict rather than cooperation…this cycle of suspicion and discord must end”

3)      “on economic development, we will create a new corps of business volunteers to partner with counterparts in Muslim-majority countries…I will host a summit on entrepreneurship this year to identify how we can deepen ties between business leaders, foundations and social entrepreneurs in the United States and Muslim communities around the world”

Thank you, Mr. President.  The partners of TradeFlow21 will join you in the cause to build a prosperous, secure Middle East through commerce and trade.  Let us now begin our work.

When President Barack Obama delivers his address tomorrow in Cairo to the wider Muslim world, he will do so at great political risk to himself and his administration.  But it is a risk that demonstrates the political courage of a first-term president who acts out of necessity, and not expediency.

Necessity demands the cessation of hostilities between Israel and its neighbors, including the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state as the only viable means of resolving the Palestinian question.

Necessity now requires a U.S. policy that summarily rejects those in all quarters who use division and discord as a means of maintaining their “competitive advantage” in the region.

Necessity dictates that economic development, through investment and trade, be embraced as the preferred path to establishing a more stable, secure world for all.

For over 60 years, the Middle East, which is comprised of over 20 nations spanning Northern Africa in the west to Southern Asia in the east, has been defined by conflict and oil. This is a new era. Real GDP non-oil growth in the region, which is projected to expand by more than 3.5 percent this year, suggests that Middle Eastern nations are actively pursuing commercial diversification as they seek to become full partners and competitors in the global economy. It also presents tremendous export opportunities for companies who want access to an emerging market of 500 million consumers.

The world is waiting for President Obama to signal a new turn in U.S. – Middle East relations where strategic alliances are built principally on commerce and trade. The partners of TradeFlow21 welcome such a change as both vital and necessary.

As global markets brace for a year of pain, Middle East nations may find solace in the recent cease-fire in Gaza and the promise of President Barack Obama to find a “new way forward” with the Muslim world.  While even the wealthiest of Middle East nations may be challenged by mounting deficits and debt in the year ahead, the current tone in Washington should give hope to those who embrace trade and investment as primary tools in creating a more prosperous, secure world for all.