Archive for the ‘Trade’ Category

When President Barack Obama delivers his address tomorrow in Cairo to the wider Muslim world, he will do so at great political risk to himself and his administration.  But it is a risk that demonstrates the political courage of a first-term president who acts out of necessity, and not expediency.

Necessity demands the cessation of hostilities between Israel and its neighbors, including the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state as the only viable means of resolving the Palestinian question.

Necessity now requires a U.S. policy that summarily rejects those in all quarters who use division and discord as a means of maintaining their “competitive advantage” in the region.

Necessity dictates that economic development, through investment and trade, be embraced as the preferred path to establishing a more stable, secure world for all.

For over 60 years, the Middle East, which is comprised of over 20 nations spanning Northern Africa in the west to Southern Asia in the east, has been defined by conflict and oil. This is a new era. Real GDP non-oil growth in the region, which is projected to expand by more than 3.5 percent this year, suggests that Middle Eastern nations are actively pursuing commercial diversification as they seek to become full partners and competitors in the global economy. It also presents tremendous export opportunities for companies who want access to an emerging market of 500 million consumers.

The world is waiting for President Obama to signal a new turn in U.S. – Middle East relations where strategic alliances are built principally on commerce and trade. The partners of TradeFlow21 welcome such a change as both vital and necessary.

Early last week, oil briefly traded above $60 for the first time since November. Hard to believe that last summer oil peaked at nearly $150/bbl, and subsequently collapsed to a multi-year low of $32/bbl in February. So while we’re way off last summer’s levels, we have witnessed a practical doubling in price in just a few months time. It goes without saying that consumers and producers are all impacted in some way by price, and even though comparatively lower prices are welcomed, the volatility and recent upside are sources of uncertainty.

The message from oil analysts and capital market participants is mixed. On one side, the picture is bleak, as unemployment and economic contraction loom, while so-called oil “fundamentals” are weak (weak demand and strong supply). These all suggest that the oil rally may have run its course for the time being. However, the bullish camp points to the now rhetorical “green shoots of recovery” theory, reports of stockpiling by China, short (seller) covering in futures markets,  and higher risk appetite among investors and traders — with all the aforementioned accompanied by a weakening dollar, which has an inverse relationship with oil and many other commodities.

Therefore, it truly is a mixed bag. For consumers and domestic U.S. manufacturers, an economic recovery at home and more broadly around the world has huge implications, but higher oil nibbles away at the purse and at margins, respectively. At the same time, as a weak dollar typically suggests a more favorable climate for U.S. exports, there is pressure on the input (or materials) side from rising commodities. Nevertheless, at current price levels, higher growth for higher oil is a bargain! For oil producers, higher oil is almost always welcome, although refining operations can cap the upside. Also, higher oil means more likelihood for investment and exploration, which eventually may lead to more revenues, and supply, but ultimately, perhaps somewhat of a damper on prices.

That being said, TradeFlow21 remains enthusiastic about the sustained growth prospects in the Middle East. In some cases, oil now accounts for a lower portion of GDP than in years past as Gulf economies seek economic diversification, but in terms of a source of foreign reserves, oil overwhelmingly remains the source of liquidity. In our opinion, the higher oil prices of late are not necessarily worrisome from the U.S. viewpoint. Reason being is that OPEC, and the Gulf producers in general, are sensitive. A recent guest on Bloomberg Radio made the point that the Gulf producers don’t want to be blamed for a prolonged global recession, and therefore, are willing to sacrifice near-term profits and even some budgetary shortfalls. Oil producing companies have a relatively low break-even price, perhaps as low as $30 or less, but oil producing nations that went on a spending spree in recent years tend to have budgets based on break-even oil in the $40-$60 range, with outliers such as Abu Dhabi in the low $30s and Bahrain in the $70s (Fitch Ratings). No doubt sovereign budgets have been, and will be further adjusted, but in order to sustain growth, significant amounts of money will continue to be spent within the region. For Connecticut manufacturers and exporters, the Gulf represents real opportunity (from everyday consumer products to building materials and beyond), and TradeFlow21 is here to help make the region more accessible to you.

In his first address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night, President Obama committed to work with G-20 nations to “restore confidence in our financial system, avoid the possibility of escalating protectionism, and spur demand for American goods in markets across the globe.” This was certainly good news for Dubai World, which recently invested $400 million to construct east Africa’s ”most modern, highest capacity container port” in Djibouti. The Doraleh Container Terminal is expected to serve the undeserved and expanding markets of east Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. Its strategic location will permit products to flow more efficiently from all corners of the earth, creating a new Middle East-Africa corridor of trade and opportunity.

As global markets brace for a year of pain, Middle East nations may find solace in the recent cease-fire in Gaza and the promise of President Barack Obama to find a “new way forward” with the Muslim world.  While even the wealthiest of Middle East nations may be challenged by mounting deficits and debt in the year ahead, the current tone in Washington should give hope to those who embrace trade and investment as primary tools in creating a more prosperous, secure world for all.

The start of the new year has seen yet another round of conflict between Israel and one of its neighbors.  This time, it is Gaza–a Palestinian state in waiting–that finds itself in a state of siege.  Siege, and the need to defend against attacks by Hamas militia who indiscriminately fire rockets into civilian enclaves, is also Israel’s reason for this latest military action.  Once more, both sides will seek legitimacy for their cause in chambers and legislative bodies across the globe.  And once more, popular opinion will uncritically affirm a distorted and tired cold-war view of the Middle East as seen through the lens of the ‘Arab-Israeli conflict.’

But this is a new age where human intellect and industry are changing the landscape in terms both political and social.  Among the 20-plus countries that comprise the Middle East, most have already embraced global commerce as a primary means of engagement with the world community.  The recent economic boom among the Gulf nations in particular has also ushered in an era of commercial cooperation with Western partners, creating a more interdependent, integrated world.  It has also fostered a deeper understanding and respect for the region as the cradle of civilization for writing, philosophy, science, art, and faith.  In spite of current economic circumstances, TradeFlow21 will work tirelessly to promote investment and trade as the primary tools of engagement.  Let commerce do what conflict cannot do; create an environment where sovereign states, democratic or theocratic, and their people live in relative peace, prosperity, and security.  The killing must stop.  Peace must prevail, because humanity now demands it.

We are traders all. We barter and bargain, agree then rescind, resume and conclude negotiations for goods and services throughout our lives. We trade because we are inclined by nature to do so, regardless of how we earn our daily bread as defined by the color of our collar, blue or white. It is in our blood.

Next January, President-Elect Barack Obama will be severely tested on many fronts:  a two-theater war; dislocation of global markets; and a mounting environmental crisis that threatens to alter the face of the earth and the security of nations. He will be pressed for answers, not just explanations.

For many, the Middle East is the nexus of terror, provoking wars of intervention, and oil, which has created untold wealth for the region and pollution as a by-product of a fuel-addicted world. It is also a land of over 300 million people, where industry, entrepreneurship, and direct foreign investment have fed a development boom of unprecedented scale. Though Gulf states in particular have felt the effects of the current financial crisis, resulting in plummeting home prices in Dubai and the court-ordered closure of the Kuwait stock exchange, the Middle East’s influence in world markets is uncontested.

We urge the President-Elect to seize the moment and let trade flow freely into this intersection of the world, supplanting terror and war by transforming oil-dependent economies into highly diverse, fully integrated drivers of global growth and opportunity.

Let trade also rebalance a troubled region that for the past 60 years has employed a Cold War model with Israel as the sole arbiter of U.S. and Western interests.

Let trade transcend language, culture, and faith as democracies and theocracies find concord through commerce, with prosperity and security the dividends.